Food: fuel production conflict will cost US food industry $100 million by 2010
There’s no definitive answer to what the influence of biofuel production will be on concentrate animal feeding in the US - it’s a complex question and there’s a whole matrix of ‘players’ to consider.
“There’s conflict too - between ‘food’ and ‘energy’ in agriculture,” John Comerford from Penn State University told delegates at this year’s British Society of Animal Science annual conference. “And there are forces at play that will hinder the ability to be profitable in some meat production sectors, but we still don’t know which.”
Corn production currently drives US agriculture but, since the US government’s decree that 30 billion gallons of biofuel will replace fossil fuel by 2020, could soon change. And it’s set to cost the US food industry $100 million by 2010, according to Dr Comerford.
“Once again our country’s leader has jumped on a train even though he doesn’t know where it’s going - and he’s bought a ticket for us all.”
The US doesn’t have the capacity to produce that much bio fuel as yet and is woefully short of reaching it. Even if all the capacity was used, just 12.3% of current fossil and 5% of diesel use could be met.
The cost of constructing ethanol plants, coupled with the high price of corn, is preventing further development within the sector.
“And the energy required to make that bio fuel hasn’t been factored in either - it actually equates to a 65% energy loss,” said Dr Comerford. Around 60% of the corn currently grown in the US is used for livestock feed - roughly 31% for beef production, 27% for poultry, 24% for pork and 15% dairy. And despite a record crop in 2007, the price of corn has doubled - from $2.77 to $5.27 per bushel. For a 50,000 head cattle lot, consuming 425 tonnes of corn per day, that equates to an increase in feeding costs of $38,000.
“I see two possible outcomes. Either the price of fossil fuel will fall to a more economic level, which I doubt. Or food, corn and animal feed prices will all continue to increase, which will drive down farm incomes and meat production levels,” Dr Comerford added.
Presented to the British Society of Animal Science Annual Meeting, March 31 to April 2, 2008, Scarborough, UK.
Full details: JW Comerford: “The implications of bio-fuel production on intensive livestock production in the United States.”
http://www.bsas.org.uk/Publications/Annual_Conference_Proceedings
PDF of Powerpoint presentations available at http://www.bsas.org.uk/Members_Area/
Comerford J April 2008. The implications of biofuel production on intensive livestock production in the United States. Proceedings of the British Society of Animal Science, pp 285
summary (pdf) Presentation_285comerford (pdf)
