There will be ‘disbenefits’ as well as benefits in reducing GHG emissions
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture is a laudable and necessary objective. It should be done, however, in the knowledge that not only will there be ‘disbenefits’ as well as benefits, but also that these ‘disbenefits’ will be compounded by issues relating to competition for resources.
These were just some of the strong views that Chris Pollock from Aberystwyth University formed during his research into the impacts on livestock agriculture of competition for resources – views he shared with delegates attending the British Society of Animal Science’s Livestock and Global Climate Change meeting, held in Tunisia.
“Pressures to increase production will grow at the same time as pressures to reduce carbon footprint will intensify and the intensive livestock sector is particularly vulnerable to these conflicting pressures.”
Professor Pollock stressed that his presentation, which examined the impacts on livestock agriculture of competition for resources, reflected his views and was not based on any external support or funding.
“The conclusions are open to debate and disagreement. If, however, the conclusions are borne out by events in the next few years, the implications for the industry, the food chain and policy makers are considerable.
“The delivery of a more sustainable food chain for livestock products will require policy and regulatory change, changes in consumer behaviour and awareness and forward planning on behalf of the industry.”
He said that livestock agriculture is very sensitive to resource competition and competition for water, land and feed will increase at the same time as demand is rising. This will increase the risk of insecurity of supply and possibly reduce food safety. And the social consequences of this are unknown.
“The livestock sector is particularly vulnerable to change, given that it competes substantially with direct human feeding for key resources,” he told delegates.
“Unfortunately most of the changes that we are likely to see during the next 50 years are going to make both mitigation and adaptation more difficult and do, in my view, and present real challenges to the livestock industry.”
He explained that intensive livestock production systems, even those involving ruminants, rely substantially on bought-in feedstuffs. “And demand for animal products is increasing worldwide, driven mainly by increasing prosperity in Asia and to a lesser extent South America, and IFPRI have estimated that an extra 300 million tonnes of grain will be needed by 2050 just to feed to livestock.”
At the same time, overall human demand for arable crops is increasing, driven mainly by population growth, predicted to reach nine billion within the 21st century.
“The development of eco-efficient livestock systems is a logical response to increased prices and reduced security of bought-in feed but will, inevitably, lead to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production,” he added.
Presented to the British Society of Animal Science’s Livestock and Global Climate Change meeting, May 17 to 20, 2008, Hammamet, Tunisia.
Full details:
C Pollock: “Impacts on livestock agriculture of competition for resources.”
summary (pdf) Presentation 08_05_pollock (pdf)
http://www.bsas.org.uk/Meetings_&_Workshops/Past_Meetings/
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